Coping With the Bounds: Speculations on Nonlinearity in by Thomas J. Czerwinski

By Thomas J. Czerwinski

Dealing with the limits: Speculations on Nonlinearity in army Affairs

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21 Therefore, it is usual that imposing linear expectations on the agents within a nonlinear system will backfire in the form of unintended consequences caused by those slippery interactions. Interactions in International Relations The never-ending consequences of these interactions led Robert Jervis to explore the nature of these unintended results in diplomacy and security policy. Jervis, who is an Adlai E. Stevenson professor of international affairs at Columbia University, writes: We can never do merely one thing.

Then comes the second bifurcation point generating four. Next comes the third bifurcation point bringing with it eight branches. However, the difference between the second and third bifurcation point is only about 22 percent of that between the first and second. These bifurcations follow a rule, a rarity in mathematics, such as the value of pi. The rule is that these bifurcations occur in an accelerated fashion. Each succeeding bifurcation happens at an interval, each closer to 22 percent as long as its predecessor, creating a compression effect.

17 Steven M. Rinaldi, Beyond the Industrial Web: Economic Synergies and Targeting Methodologies (Student thesis) (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University, April 1995), 12. Chapter 2 29 reductionism does. And the number of agents/objects is globally increasing over time because there is an absolute growth in nonlinearity. Below are three views of this growth. W. Brian Arthur, member of the Santa Fe Institute (the leading Complexity theory “think tank”) and prominent nonlinear economist, believes that there is a general law: complexity tends to increase as functions and modifications are added to a system to break through limitations, handle exceptional circumstances or adapt to a world itself more complex.

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